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The way it is…

Uncategorized Comments (4)

according to Swoop:

Significant uncertainty surrounds the President-elect’s approach towards Iran. While Obama indicated on the campaign trail a commitment to pursuing sanctions and “tough, direct diplomacy” in dissuading Tehran from its atomic ambitions, any increase in tension would have implications for stability in Iraq. As we have previously indicated, some analysts in Washington believe that this situation could encourage the President-elect to attempt a “grand bargain”. However, this in turn runs up against the strategic interests of Washington’s allies in the Gulf, who fear an expansion of Iranian influence.

The next Administration’s attitude towards Iran will also hold consequences for relations with Israel and the Palestinians. Already, the leader of the Kadima Party Tzipi Livni has warned against extending a diplomatic hand to the sponsors of Hamas and Hezbollah. Additionally, should a significant divergence in approach towards Iran’s nuclear program emerge, the risks of unilateral action by Tel Aviv would increase. On the Peace Process, while Obama has recently indicated that he regards a negotiated two-state settlement as a priority, we suspect that this will remain contingent upon both the nature of his interlocutors, and his ability to overcome the myriad of more immediate political and economic challenges upon which his electoral mandate is based.

Irancove @ November 9, 2008

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