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Iran: Revisiting the Israeli Factor

Uncategorized Comments (8)

According to Swoop:

The June 20th exposure of Israeli long-distance aerial strike exercises over the Mediterranean, two months after a nationwide civil defense simulation of a non-conventional weapons attack, underscores the seriousness with which Tel Aviv regards Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Israel’s track record of striking at the nuclear facilities of neighboring antagonists, at “Osirak in 1981 and in northern Syria in September 2007, lends credence to threats against Tehran. However, we remain unconvinced of any impending action. As a prominent pro-Israeli think tank in Washington has indicated in a recent analysis, such a strike would be severely complicated by distance, and the camouflaged, hardened and dispersed nature of Iranian nuclear facilities. Instead, recent Israeli saber-rattling can be interpreted as an effort to ratchet up international pressure on Iran, as part of a broader attempt to constrain its moves towards regional hegemony. Such posturing complements Tel Aviv’s diplomatic efforts to drive a wedge between Iran and its clients in Syria and the Levant. The Administration, while adhering to its public stance that “it does not take any cards off the table“, remains leery of losing control of international escalation, either to Iran or to Israeli hawks. Rumors have emerged of US efforts to reestablish informal diplomatic representation in Tehran. Despite an increasingly turbulent summer, US officials are still backing the success of the current round of diplomacy.

Irancove @ June 28, 2008

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